Paul spoke at the Bogleheads conference in Minneapolis in September 2024. To make it easy for the guests to easily access the entire collection of our tables we put together one link. Click here for access to over 200 tables. 

Plus, in the coming weeks the Bogleheads will release videos of all the conference presentations. Stay tuned!

Resources

Best in Class ETF Update 2024

Free Copy- We’re Talking Millions
Free Copy- 2 Funds for Life

Tables

Equity Index Returns 

These two tables look at four different equity asset classes as well as three different bond maturities for the period 1928-2023. These tables make it very clear that bonds are safe for the short term but it’s stocks that are clearly best for the long term.

Quilt Charts 
The main 4 color quilt chart is amazing as it shows the annual returns of all 4 of the major U.S. equity asset classes, as well as a single portfolio of 25% each of the four equity asset classes.. I have included additional tables that I thought you might find of interest.

Return Rankings of Equity Index Funds 
These 5 tables compare the return differences of 6 different indices for U.S.large cap growth, small cap growth, small cap growth, small cap blend and small cap value. These tables (produced by Avantis Funds) make it clear how important it is to be in the “right” asset class fund.

Historical Range of Return for 4 Equity Portfolios 
These four tables show the range of returns for the S&P 500, small cap value index, the combination of small cap value and the S&P 500 as well as a combination of 25% positions in the S&P 500, large cap value, small cap blend, and small cap value. The return ranges are shown for 11 periods from one to 40 year periods.

Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy 50/50 U.S. International allocation 
For over 25 years we have been updating out Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy. The purpose of this study is to introduce investors to the long term impact of 10 different equity asset classes. According to many academics these 10 equity asset classes have a high probability of producing long term returns that are equal to or higher than the S&P 500. It is from this group of equity asset classes that we find the components for our Sound Investing Portfolios. This Table uses a 50/50 U.S./International allocation.

Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy 70/30 U.S. International allocation 
For over 25 years we have been updating our Ultimate Buy and Hold Strategy. The purpose of this study is to introduce investors to the long term impact of 10 different equity asset classes. According to many academics these 10 equity asset classes have a high probability of producing long term returns that are equal to or higher than the S&P 500. It is from this group of equity asset classes that we find the components for our Sound Investing Portfolios. This Table uses a 70/30 U.S./International allocation.

Fine Tuning Tables: Combination of U.S./International Equity Asset Allocation is 50% U.S./50% International 
The Fine Tuning Tables are designed to give investors some historical perspective for the annual returns of each of the equity portfolios we recommend. In each table you will find the all equity return for the specific combination of equity asset classes plus the returns of combining the equities with fixed income securities. Please note that at the bottom of each column of returns is a list of the worst 6, 12, 36 and 60 month losses, as well as the biggest decline without regard to time. These risk and return events will hopefully give investors a sense of the volatility they will experience in the future.

Fine Tuning Tables- Combination of U.S./International equity asset classes is 70% U.S./30% International 
The Fine Tuning Tables are designed to give investors some historical perspective for the annual returns of each of the equity portfolios we recommend. In each table you will find the all equity return for the specific combination of equity asset classes plus the returns of combining the equities with fixed income securities. Please note that at the bottom of each column of returns is a list of the worst 6, 12, 36 and 60 month losses, as well as the biggest decline without regard to time. These risk and return events will hopefully give investors a sense of the volatility they will experience in the future.

Fixed Contribution Tables 
The Fixed Contribution Tables assume the returns of the Fine Tuning Tables so an investor can see the impact of investing in them over a long period of time. The assumption is the investor started with an investment of $1,000 ($83.33 a month) and increased that amount by 3% each year. $1,000 was used as the starting investment so it is easy to adjust to whatever an investor can afford. This group of Tables assumes the use of a 50% U.S. and 30% International equity asset allocation.

Fixed Distribution Tables 
The table in this pdf assumes the first year's distribution is 3, 4, 5, or 6 percent. The tables then reflect an annual distribution increase based on the previous year's inflation. The portfolios in these tables assume a 50% U.S. and 50% International equity allocation and include the full range of equity/fixed income allocations.

Fixed Distribution Tables
These Fixed Distribution Tables use the 70% U.S. and 30% International equity allocations along with the wide variety of fixed income combinations.

Flexible Distributions 
The second common distribution strategy is normally referred to as flexible or variable. These tables show the distributions of 3, 4, 5 and 6 percent based on the ending balance of the previous year. This strategy is often used by investors who have “more than enough” and don’t have to consider inflation. These portfolios use a 50/50 U.S./International allocation.

Flexible Distributions 
These tables assume the equity portion of the portfolios used a 70/30 U.S./International allocation. 

Tell-Tale Charts 
These are very important graphs for those considering adding small cap value to their portfolio. A close review of these historical returns should give a serious heads up regarding the very long periods of small cap value underperformance. I think young investors should pay particular attention to slide 4 as it demonstrates the huge difference in return between a lump sum and dollar cost average investment.

Sound Investing Portfolio Returns (1970-2023) 50/50

These tables show the year by year returns, the decade returns, the results in the losing years and the results in the profitable.years for all 9 portfolios. This set of returns assumes a 50/50 balance of U.S./International equity funds.

Sound Investing Portfolio Returns (1970-2023) 70/30

This set of returns assume a 70/30 balance of U.S./International equity funds.

2 Funds for Life Fine Tuning Table

The following is a table Chris Pedersen (author of 2 funds for life) has produced to show the combination of a target date fund with different percentages of small cap value.

Data Disclosure 
This data disclosure covers the tables that track the 1928-2023 returns and risk factors.

Data Disclosure

This data disclosure covers the tables that track the Sound Investing Portfolios from 1970-2023.