In this podcast Paul discusses the historical returns of the S&P 500, large cap value, small cap blend and small cap value. He knows many investors live with the belief they will find an actively managed that will outperform his favorite of the four, small cap value. Three of the most famous investors of all time, Peter Lynch, Bill Miller and Warren Buffet had records that few will ever match. What are the odds these great investors will do it again? But you may find small cap value did almost as well as the three did during the peak of their careers.
In 2011 John Bogle predicted a 7% 10 year growth rate (including dividends) for the S&P 500. In June, 2015 he reduced his prediction to 5%. Now he is predicting a 4% growth rate for the next decade and that doesn’t include mutual fund expenses, taxes or inflation. That might not be unsettling to investors if he didn’t have all the historical info to make his point. In this podcast Paul talks about the steps one might take to improve their return, including one that suggests a 20% return should be easy. In fact, the promotional literature for this service shows how an investor could have turned $5000 into $154,250. Paul suggests there is a safer way to add returns without taking much more risk—and maybe less risk than the S&P by itself.
Paul Merriman and Andrew from The Disciplined Investor discuss some of the basics of investing, psychology and a better understanding of corrections and bear markets.
Paul offers a dozen things every first-time investor should know before they make their first investment. Get these dozen things right and you are almost guaranteed to be a successful investor. Want to know the single best step to becoming a successful long-term investor? Paul shares his suggestion, which includes spending about 2 hours reading what he feels are the most important decisions you will make.
Like many investors, this 37-year-old, whom Paul discusses, had not answered the most important investment questions: What return do you need? What inflation should be assumed? How many years until you’d like to retire? What is your risk tolerance? Find out why Paul recommends he invest like a retiree with part of the portfolio, and like a first-time investor with the balance.
- What is the ten-year performance for your recommended portfolios? :45
- There are so many seemingly good fee-only financial advisors that I am confused how to choose one. Can you help? 7:30
- I have never seen you comment on fundamental indexing. Do you think there is an advantage of using fundamental indexes in building a brand-based portfolio of index funds? In the answer Paul references this article: http://www.servowealth.com/resources/articles/fundamental-indexes-fall-flat 15:10
- Should I rollover my pension into an IRA or take an annuity that will pay my wife and me a check a month for life?25:45
- My friend is getting ready to retire and he is talking to a stock broker about rolling over a substantial 401k plan, what can I say to him and should I be concerned for my friend? 31:20
Paul Merriman / Sound Investing / best investments for inheritance, compare Vanguard with DFA, DFA fund risks, how does inflation affect investments? paul merriman podcast, investing in mid-career, Sound Investing, what is dollar cost averaging /
- Most of your articles and podcasts focus on first-time investors or those almost in or in retirement. What about us in-between? What steps do you recommend for investors in their 40s? 0:52
- How would you invest a $200,000 inheritance? Should we dollar cost average? 10:17
- Are the DFA funds more risky than the Vanguard funds? 22:00
- I would like to make as much with Vanguard funds as you say you can make with DFA funds. Can I make as much with Vanguard if I overweight my positions in small cap and value funds? 29:04
- What is likely to happen to the returns of value funds when interest rates and inflation rise? 36:55
1. What do you think of Vanguard’s recommendations in their personal advisory service? 00:30
2. We are moving our investments from Ameriprise to Vanguard. What funds do you recommend at Vanguard? 08:25
3. What do you think about putting all my retirement investments in the S&P 500 and taking 5%? 14:30
4. I’m in an investing contest. What fund do you recommend for the best return in the short term? 19:15
5. What fund or funds do you recommend for a first-time investor with only $1,500 to invest? 24:00
How should you deal with major market declines? Paul shares his personal advice, as well as advice on the same topic from Jason Zweig’s article, “What Investors Shouldn’t Do Now.” and from Tyler Bartlett, Paul’s personal investment advisor. He believes Tyler’s graph of annual returns vs. annual declines provides perspective to the relationship between risk and return.
Target Date Funds are a lot like pension funds, but they don’t come with a payment guarantee. There are 3 ways Target Date Funds can keep investors from reaching their goals for early retirement, or retiring with enough money to not take a cut in pay at retirement. Paul discusses these and also what makes a great Target Date Fund and how they can be better than a pension fund in retirement. He mentions an article in the podcast that gives more information: http://paulmerriman.com/double-target-date-retirement-funds-return-single-move/
One of the most important investment decisions you make is how much you can take out of your retirement investments. In this podcast Paul compares a fixed distribution strategy to the flexible distribution strategy. The fixed strategy is for investors who retire with just enough, compared to the flexible strategy for those who have saved more than enough. This podcast and the accompanying tables show the conditions where one can take out 6% a year or other conditions where 4% is the maximum distribution. Listeners should download and print the Fine Tuning Table, as well as Tables 1 through 6.
Paul discusses 10 lessons for those investors planning to retire on a fixed distribution strategy. Fixed distribution strategies are those built on a base need with the long-term requirement of increasing distributions due to increases in inflation. Paul references the Fine Tuning Table as well as 3 tables on fixed distributions. He recommends printing those tables for use during this podcast.